1. Ni iki kirimo kuba ubu?
Ni icyumweru cya mbere cya Mutarama 2026. Isi yo kugura ibyuma yahindutse burundu. Ibi dushobora kubyita "Umutungo w'Icyuma."
Mu myaka makumyabiri ishize, twashoboraga kugura ibyuma nka Tungsten cyangwa Cobalt aho ari ho hose. Icyo gihe cyararangiye. Ubu dufite amasoko abiri atandukanye. Isoko rimwe riri mu Bushinwa, irindi riri mu Burengerazuba. Bafite ibiciro bitandukanye n'amategeko atandukanye.
Dore ibyo ubushakashatsi bwerekanye ko biri kuba muri iki cyumweru:
●Tungsten:Igiciro kirimo kwiyongera cyane. Ubushinwa bugenzura hafi 82% by'ibicuruzwa. Bagabanyije gusa amafaranga bazagurisha ku isi. Muri icyo gihe, Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika zatangiye kwishyuza umusoro wa 25% (umusoro) kuri tungsten yo mu Bushinwa ku ya 1 Mutarama.
●Cobalt:Ibibera muri Kongo (RDC) birateye urujijo ariko birakomeye. Bashyizeho umupaka ku mubare w'amafaranga bazatumiza mu mahanga. Bongereye igihe ntarengwa kugira ngo bafashe amakamyo kunyura ku mupaka, ariko amafaranga yose yemerewe muri 2026 aracyari make cyane. Ibiciro biriyongera kubera ibi.
●Icyuma cyihuta cyane (HSS):Iki ni icyuma gikoreshwa mu gukora ibikoresho byo gukata. Kubera ko ibikoresho (Tungsten na Cobalt) bihenze, ibiciro by'ibyuma biriyongera. Ariko inganda zo mu Bushinwa zongeye kugira akazi kenshi, bityo zigura ibyuma byinshi. Ibi bishyigikira ibiciro biri hejuru.
2. Tungsten: Inkuru y'amasoko abiri
Narebye neza isoko rya Tungsten muri iki cyumweru. Birashoboka ko ari ryo ry'ingenzi cyane mu gukora ibikoresho bikomeye.
Uruhande rw'Abashinwa
Ubushinwa bwasohoye urutonde rushya rw'amasosiyete yemerewe kohereza Tungsten mu mahanga ku ya 2 Mutarama. Urutonde ni rugufi. Amasosiyete 15 gusa ni yo ashobora kuyigurisha mu mahanga.1
Narebye ibiciro mu Bushinwa. Toni imwe ya "Black Tungsten Concentrate" ubu igura arenga 356.000 RMB.2Iki ni igiciro kinini cyane. Kuki gihenze cyane? Nasanze abagenzuzi b'ibidukikije basura ibirombe byo mu ntara ya Jiangxi. Bari guhatira ibirombe gufunga kugira ngo bisanwe. Bityo, nta mabuye menshi ava mu butaka.
Uruhande rw'Iburengerazuba
Mu Burayi no muri Amerika, abaguzi baratinya. Igiciro cya APT (ubwoko bwa tungsten) i Rotterdam cyageze ku madolari 850 kugeza ku madolari 1,000.3Ibi biri hejuru cyane ugereranyije no mu Bushinwa.
Kuki hari itandukaniro? Ni ukubera imisoro mishya ya Amerika. Ku munsi w'Ubunani, guverinoma ya Amerika yatangiye gushyiraho umusoro wa 25% kuri tungsten y'Abashinwa.4Amasosiyete yo muri Amerika arimo kugerageza kugura ibicuruzwa mu bindi bihugu nka Vietnam cyangwa Brezili. Ariko nta bikoresho bihagije bihari. Bityo, bagomba kwishyura amafaranga menshi cyane.
3. Cobalt: Ubuke bw'Ubukorano
Cobalt ni ingenzi mu gukora ibikoresho bifite imikorere myiza (nk'icyuma cya M35). Isoko rya Cobalt rirakabije muri iki gihe.
Intambwe ikomeye ya Kongo
Igice kinini cya Cobalt ku isi gikomoka muri Repubulika Iharanira Demokarasi ya Kongo (RDC). Guverinoma y'aho irashaka amafaranga menshi. Bityo, bashyizeho umupaka. Bavuze ko bazajya mu mahanga toni 96.600 gusa mu 2026.5
Dore ikibazo. Isi ikeneye ibirenze ibyo. Imibare migufi igaragaza ko hakenewe nibura toni 100.000.
Ubutabazi "bw'impimbano"
Ushobora kubona amakuru avuga ko Kongo yongereye igihe ntarengwa cyo gutwara imodoka kugeza muri Werurwe 2026. Witondere aya makuru. Babikoze gusa kubera ko amakamyo menshi yari yafatiwe ku mupaka.6Barimo gukuraho umuvuduko w'imodoka gusa. Umupaka ntarengwa w'umwaka wose wa 2026 ntiwahindutse.
Kubera iyi ntarengwa, igiciro cya Cobalt kuri London Metal Exchange (LME) cyazamutse hejuru y’amadolari 53.000 muri iki cyumweru.7
4. Ibyuma bikoresha umuvuduko mwinshi: Ni nde wishyura fagitire?
Ibi bigira izihe ngaruka ku nganda zikora imashini zicukura n'izisya ibintu?
Igiciro cy'Alloys
Ukurikije urutonde rw'ibiciro by'abacuzi bakomeye b'ibyuma bo mu Burayi nka Erasteel, bishyuza amafaranga y'inyongera yitwa "alloy surcharge." Muri Mutarama 2026, aya mafaranga ni hafi amayero 1.919 kuri toni.8Yagabanutseho gato ugereranyije n'Ukuboza, ariko iracyari hejuru cyane mu mateka.
Nugura icyuma cya M35 (gifite Cobalt), uzishyura amafaranga menshi kurusha icyuma gisanzwe cya M2. Icyuho kiri hagati y'ibi biciro byombi kirimo kwiyongera.
Ubusabe buri kugaruka
Ibiciro biri hejuru, ariko se abantu baragura? Yego.
Amakuru ya "PMI" yo mu Ukuboza ni amanota atwereka niba inganda zihugiye. Amanota y'Ubushinwa yari 50.1.10Amanota yose arenga 50 bivuze ko yazamutse. Ni ubwa mbere mu mezi make byagaragaye ko ari byiza. Bivuze ko inganda zikora, kandi ko zikeneye ibikoresho.
5. Ni iki tugomba gukora? (Inama z'ingamba)
Dukurikije ubu bushakashatsi bwose, dore inama zimwe na zimwe zo mu mezi make ari imbere.
1. Ntutegereze ko ibiciro bigabanuka.
Ibiciro biri hejuru si ukwiyongera kw'agateganyo. Biterwa n'amategeko ya leta (ibipimo n'imisoro). Aya mategeko ntabwo azavaho vuba. Niba ukeneye ibikoresho byo muri Q2, bigure ubu ngubu.
2. Reba "Gukwirakwira".
Niba ushobora kugura ibikoresho byakorewe mu bihugu bitagizweho ingaruka n'imisoro ya Amerika, ushobora kuzigama amafaranga. Ariko witondere. Ibicuruzwa muri ibyo bihugu ni bike cyane.
3. Gusubiramo Byose.
Ibyuma bishaje ubu bimeze nk'izahabu. Uduce twa kera two gucukuramo tungsten na cobalt. Niba uyobora uruganda, ntukabijugunye. Bigurishe cyangwa ngo ubigurishe. Igiciro cya tungsten bishaje cyazamutseho 160% mu mwaka ushize.11
Ku batumiza ibikoresho mpuzamahanga, abacuruzi benshi, n'ababicuruza:
Impinduka ku isoko mu ntangiriro za 2026 izana imbogamizi zifatika, ntabwo ari ibiciro biri hejuru gusa. Ibyo ukwiye kwitondera:
1. Guhindagurika kw'ibiciro ni ingenzi kurusha ibiciro bya Spot
Muri iki gihe, gukurikirana igabanuka ry'ibiciro mu gihe gito bigira ingaruka nyinshi. Impinduka za politiki zikunze kubaho, igenzura ry'ibyoherezwa mu mahanga, n'ibiciro by'ibikoresho fatizo bivuze ko ibiciro bishobora kuzamuka mu buryo butunguranye kandi butunguranye.
Umufatanyabikorwa uhamye wo gutanga ibicuruzwa ufite igenamigambi risobanutse neza arimo kuba ingirakamaro kurusha ibiciro bike cyane.
2. Igihe n'inkomoko y'ibikorwa ubu ni ibintu by'ingenzi
Igihugu cy'inkomoko, ubushobozi bwo gukora, n'uburyo bwo gushakira ibikoresho bigira ingaruka ku buryo butaziguye ku bwizewe bwo kubitanga.
Uturere tumwe na tumwe tudatanga imisoro dushobora gutanga inyungu ku giciro cy'igihe gito, ariko ubushobozi buke n'itangwa ry'ibikoresho ridahindagurika bishobora kugabanya izo nyungu vuba.
3. Gutegura ububiko bw'ibikoresho bikeneye igihe kirekire
Ingamba gakondo yo "gugura ibiciro bigabanuka" ntabwo igira ingaruka nziza. Abaguzi barashishikarizwa gutegura kugura nibura kimwe cya kane mbere no kugura SKU z'ingenzi hakiri kare, cyane cyane ku bikoresho byo gukata birimo cobalt na tungsten.
Inshingano zacu nk'umukozi:
Nk’uruganda rukora ibikoresho n’urutanga ibikoresho by’igihe kirekire, twizera ko inshingano zacu atari uguteza imbere ubwoba ku isoko, ahubwo ari ugufasha abafatanyabikorwa bacu guhangana n’ibibazo tudasobanukiwe neza hamwe n’amakuru asobanutse neza ndetse n’igenamigambi rifatika.
Mu mezi ari imbere tuzibandaho:
●Gukomeza gahunda z'umusaruro zihamye nubwo ibikoresho fatizo bihindagurika
● Gukoresha neza ibikoresho, harimo kongera gukoresha ibikoresho no kugenzura umusaruro
●Gutanga amakuru hakiri kare ku bijyanye n'igitutu cy'ibiciro n'impinduka mu gihe cyo kwishyura
●Kwirinda ibiciro by’amakuru ashingiye ku bitekerezo, ahubwo tugatanga ibiciro bisobanutse kandi bishingiye ku makuru
Turumva ko abakiriya bacu nabo bahanganye n'igitutu cy'amasoko yabo. Ubufatanye burambye, muri iki gihe, bushingiye ku kwizerana, gukorera mu mucyo, no kumenya ingaruka rusange, ntabwo ari ukurushanwa mu biciro by'igihe gito.
6. Incamake: Uburyo bushya busanzwe ku nganda zikora ibikoresho
Isoko ryarahindutse. Ntabwo rikiri iry’ibicuruzwa gusa n’ibikenewe, ahubwo rikomeje kwivanga na politiki n’imipaka. Umutungo w’ubukungu waragabanutse, bituma ibintu byose bihenda cyane. Mutarama 2026 izibukwa nk’igihe cy’ingenzi ku isoko ry’amabuye y’agaciro. Uku kwezi kwagaragayemo gusenyuka kw’amahame y’ubucuruzi bw’ubwisanzure mu guhangana n’ibibazo bikomeye bya politiki y’isi, biha umwanya isi nshya igenwa n’inzitizi, imigabane, n’uburyo bwo gushyiraho ingamba. Kuri buri wese witabiriye uruhererekane rw’inganda, kumenyera iki gisanzwe gishya cy’ “ibiciro biri hejuru, ihindagurika rikomeye, n’amabwiriza akomeye” si ngombwa gusa kugira ngo umuntu akomeze kubaho ahubwo ni n’ingenzi mu kubona inyungu mu irushanwa mu myaka icumi iri imbere.
Isoko ry'ibikoresho byo gukata ririmo kwinjira mu cyiciro aho politiki y'isi, amategeko n'umutekano w'umutungo ari ingenzi kimwe n'ubushobozi bwo gukora.
Ku baguzi n'abatanga ibicuruzwa, ikibazo cy'ingenzi ntikikiri
"Nagura bihendutse gute?"
ariko
"Ni gute nabona ibikoresho mu buryo bwizewe mu mezi 12-24 ari imbere?"
Abazimenyera hakiri kare iyi mpinduka bazarushaho kuba ingirakamaro mu gihe impinduka zizaba zisanzwe aho kuba idasanzwe.
Icyitonderwa: Iyi raporo yakusanyijwe hashingiwe ku makuru y’isoko, amakuru y’inganda, n’ibice by’amakuru byabonetse ku isoko kugeza ku ya 4 Mutarama 2026. Ingaruka ku isoko zirahari; ishoramari risaba kwitonda.
Ibikorwa byavuzwe
1. Ubushinwa bwashyize ahagaragara amasosiyete yemerewe kohereza mu mahanga amabuye y'agaciro mu 2026-2027 - Investing.com, yagejejweho ku ya 4 Mutarama 2026,https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/china-names-companies-allowed-to-export-critical-metals-in-20262027-93CH-4425149
2. Ibiciro bya Tungsten bikomeje kuzamuka mu gihe abakora ibicuruzwa bikomeye bongereye ibiciro by'amasezerano y'igihe kirekire, bikaba byaragaragaje ukwiyongera gukabije kwa 150% muri uyu mwaka [Ibitekerezo bya SMM] - Shanghai Metal Market, yagenzuwe ku ya 4 Mutarama 2026,https://www.metal.com/en/newscontent/103664822
3. Izamuka ry'ibiciro bya Tungsten mu Burayi riri hejuru ku nyungu z'Ubushinwa, ubusa bw'ibicuruzwa mbere y'ibiruhuko bushobora guteza izamuka ryinshi [Isesengura rya SMM] - Isoko ry'Ibyuma rya Shanghai, ryabonetse ku ya 4 Mutarama 2026,https://www.metal.com/en/newscontent/103669348
4. Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika zarangije ingingo ya 301 yo kongera imisoro ku bicuruzwa biva mu Bushinwa, yagenzuwe ku ya 4 Mutarama 2026,https://www.whitecase.com/insight-alert/united-states-finalizes-section-301-tariff-increases-imports-china
5.DRC izasimbuza itegeko ryo kobalt ryo kohereza hanze ibicuruzwa n'ibicuruzwa bingana - Project Blue, yagenzuwe ku ya 27 Ukuboza 2025,https://projectblue.com/blue/news-analysis/1319/drc-to-replace-cobalt-export-ban-with-quotas
6. Repubulika Iharanira Demokarasi ya Kongo yafashe icyemezo cyo kongera igipimo cy’ibicuruzwa byoherezwa mu mahanga bya kobalti mu 2025 kikagera kuri kometero ya mbere ya 2026., cyabonetse ku ya 4 Mutarama 2026,https://www.metal.com/en/newscontent/103701184
7. Cobalt - Igiciro - Imbonerahamwe - Amakuru y'amateka - Amakuru - Ubukungu bw'Ubucuruzi, yabonetse ku ya 4 Mutarama 2026,https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/cobalt
8. Inyongera y'amafaranga y'inyongera | Legierungszuschlag.info, yabonetse ku ya 4 Mutarama 2026,https://legierungszuschlag.info/en/
9. Igiciro cy'imigabane cya Tiangong International Co Ltd Uyu munsi | HK: 0826 Live - Investing.com, yabonetse ku ya 4 Mutarama 2026,https://www.investing.com/equities/tiangong-international-co-ltd
10. Gutunganya rebounds mu Ukuboza, byabonetse ku ya 4 Mutarama 2026,https://www.ecns.cn/news/economy/2026-01-02/detail-iheymvap1611554.shtml
11. Ibiciro bya Tungsten Concentrate byazamutseho 7% mu munsi umwe – 16 Ukuboza 2025, byabonetse ku ya 27 Ukuboza 2025,https://www.ctia.com.cn/en/news/46639.html
Igihe cyo kohereza: Mutarama-05-2026